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Tuesday, March 31 • 10:00am - 10:15am
Allison Lynn Brannan: An Analysis of the Extratropical Flow Response to Recurving Atlantic Tropical Cyclones

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When a tropical cyclone (TC) undergoes extratropical transition (ET), it changes its trajectory and begins to move eastward, as opposed to its original westward direction. This “recurvature” in the mid latitudes can lead to the TC interacting with the extratropical jet stream, which could amplify the extratropical flow of the jet and cause severe weather events a great distance downstream (Archambault 2013). In order to forecast these extreme weather events, it is critical to understand the characteristics of the TC’s interaction with the extratropical jet that yield favorable conditions for amplification of extratropical flow. Characteristics of the TC, the large scale flow pattern, and the phasing between their interaction are investigated, as they are all factors that impact the extratropical flow response. / This project’s main objective is to analyze the climatological relationship between extratropical transitioning tropical cyclones and waves on the extratropical jet in the Atlantic basin. These results are compared to those from the North Pacific, which were analyzed in Archambault et al. (2013). Investigation begins by examining characteristics of TCs, the extratropical jet stream, and their interaction to determine the features that lead to significantly amplified extratropical flow. A main goal is to discover a position of optimal phasing between the jet and the TC that yields significantly amplified flow. This project then examines whether the results are sensitive to the metrics used to characterize jet strength and the disturbance. Explicit testing and calibration of the metrics are performed using Hurricane Hanna as a test case. /

Tuesday March 31, 2015 10:00am - 10:15am EDT
Civic Center - Meeting Room A-1 - Ground Floor 505 West Pensacola Street, Tallahassee, FL 32301